Today marks the beginning of the third week of Russian aggression in Ukraine. In the last 24 hours, Russian forces did not make any substantial gains in Ukraine. In western Ukraine, there was an increased amount of military activity on 11 March. Russian Defence Ministry reported that Russia used high-precision long-range weapons to put military airfields in Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk ‘out of action’. The airstrikes on the Lutsk airfield resulted in two deaths and six people wounded. In Ivano-Frankivsk, residents were ordered to shelters.
In the north of Ukraine, Russian widened its military offensive against Kyiv. Ukrainian forces confirmed that Russian troops have reached close to the north-eastern limits of Kyiv.It is estimated that Russian forces are within 15km from the center of Kyiv. On 10 March, Ukrainian forces relocated 1,000 civilians from Irpin and Bucha to central Kyiv. The mayor of Kyiv stated that currently ‘a little less than 2 million people’ which is almost half of the capital’s population, remained in the city.
In the east, Russian forces continued to bomb Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces reported that Russian forces attempted to seize three towns approximately 110 km southeast of Kharkiv. Russian troops advancing southeast from Kharkiv seek to link up with Russian forces advancing west from Donbas.
In southern Ukraine, heavy fighting continues in besieged city Mariupol. Ukraine’s main efforts are preventing Russian forces from advancing in the ‘south-eastern’ direction towards Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Ukrainian authorities announced several plans for evacuation and humanitarian aid delivery routes with the support of the Red Cross to people who reside in Mariupol. The humanitarian situation in Mariupol remains dire.
Russian attacks against civilian and military infrastructure in the center and west of Ukraine is likely to intensify if Russian forces are able to secure further gains in the east and south of Ukraine.
International reactions
On 10 March, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Antalya, Turkey. Kuleba announced that there was no progress towards creating a 24-hour ceasefire to evacuate civilians and bring in humanitarian aid to besieged cities. Russian representative Lavrov said the invasion is going as planned.
The escalating conflict is also present challenges to Sino-Russian relations. While Beijing has expressed an understanding of Moscow’s security concerns over NATO’s expansion, it is expected that the unfolding war is a disruptor to China’s desire to protect stability in both domestic and foreign affairs. On 09 March, the US Government warned Chinese companies about possible sanctions for supplying critical technology to Russia. The close ties between Moscow and Beijing are set to bring added international scrutiny on Chinese banks and other large businesses, many of which have significant presence and interests in the West.
On 11 March, Putin and Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko will meet in Moscow to discuss bilateral relations, economic cooperation, sanctions, and the situation in Ukraine. Putin stated that his government was capable of finding legal measures to seize assets of foreign companies that announced their withdrawal from Russia.
The International Atomic Energy Agency stated that there is a growing issue with nuclear safeguards in Ukraine. Communications and electricity has been lost at several nuclear sites.
Cyber security developments
The cyberwar continues. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, a massive wave of attacks against Ukrainian WordPress sites has been recorded, with the aim of bringing websites down. This latest wave of coordinated attacks has resulted in the compromise of 30 Ukrainian university websites, most of which suffered defacement and unavailability of services.
In addition, Russian cyber-attacks against Western countries are escalating and businesses should exercise caution in the face of continued and most likely undetected cyber-attacks in the short term. Russian cyberwarfare is targeting satellites and major Western banks such as JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Golden Sachs. These banks are constantly under attack and suspects are usually located in Russia, Iran and China. The US Government has been working with banks to prepare for cyber-attacks. Bank executives reported that they have spent billions of dollars to be prepared to protect their operations against cybercriminals.
At the same time, a team of hackers has attempted to disrupt railways and critical infrastructure in Russia and neighbouring Belarus.
Migration and humanitarian developments
Civilian casualties are increasing especially in the heavily attacked regions in Ukraine. Ukrainian refugees, including more than one million children, are increasingly fleeing to secure countries. Ukrainians seeking refuge are starting to move deeper into Europe, as well as UK. On 09 March, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that almost 1,000 visas had been issued for Ukrainians and that is expected to rise.
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