The 2024 Russian Presidential Election – Risks for Businesses

12 mars, 2024

The Russian Presidential Elections took place on 15 to 17 March 2024. Putin secured a staggering 87.3 percent of all votes counted, equivalent to 76 million votes, marking the largest landslide victory in post-Soviet Russian history. Additionally, voter turnout exceeded 77 percent, another record high in Russia’s post-Soviet era. Discover the insights of 2Secure’s latest Geopolitical Risk Monitoring and Strategic Foresight Report, revealing how these outcomes could shape the global business landscape. This reading presents valuable recommendations on bolstering resilience against Russian threats specifically tailored for European businesses.

From 15 to 17 March, nearly 115 million Russian citizens cast their votes in the Russian Presidential Election. The elections come at a time when Russia is two years into a full-scale war in Ukraine and has undermined the foundations of the European security order. While sitting President Vladimir Putin is certain to secure victory, the outcome of the elections may affect Putin’s warfare strategies over the upcoming six-year presidential term, generating security and operational implications for the European business environment.

The Russian presidential election outcomes and potential impacts

Whether the war in Ukraine will escalate or see peace negotiations, whether Russia will adopt more severe measures in the post-Soviet space, and what may be expected of Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics in the West, may be influenced by the outcome of the 2024 elections. A successful Russian Presidential Election result for ultranationalist candidate Leonid Slutsky is likely to urge Putin to develop more radicalised strategies, targeting the West and Russia’s neighbourhood. If liberal candidate Vladislav Davankov wins second place with over ten percent, Putin may rather be compelled to focus on internal economic developments and potentially move towards negotiations with Ukraine.

Implications for European business leaders

Business leaders in Europe should monitor the election, as developments in Russia’s coercion tactics may swiftly lead to economic, operational, and reputational uncertainties for European companies. The potential of an escalated and spread-out conflict in the former Soviet region is likely to affect supply chain stability, energy security, and the regulatory landscape.

Risk predictions for European businesses

2Secure also predicts increased risks of Russian cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, and intelligence collection targeting European companies in the upcoming months and years. Russian AI technology developments, nuclear modernisation, and deepening ties with non-democratic states are all risk indicators which are likely to impact international security and the resilience of European businesses throughout Putin’s next term.

Navigating the complex security landscape

This global risk monitoring and strategic foresight paper provides business leaders with insights into how the risks surrounding the Russian Presidential Election and Russian coercion tactics may look like in the upcoming six years, and what implications this may have for European businesses. It aims to help companies envision potential risk scenarios and understand what is required for to maintain long-term resilience in today’s complex and rapidly evolving security landscape.

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Do you have questions about the development in Russia or anything else related to the election and the impact on businesses?
Contact Dominic Bowen

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